The hottest paper investment in 2005 based on the

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Based on the assumption of RMB appreciation, the paper industry investment in 2005

the paper industry is facing a revaluation. We believe that as the main factors affecting the valuation of the manufacturing industry - shortage of raw materials, environmental pollution, foreign competition and insufficient plate effect - are changing or are about to change, the paper industry is currently facing a revaluation of the industry value, and the appreciation of the RMB will act as a catalyst in this revaluation process. In terms of specific valuation level, we believe that the valuation focus of industry leading companies is expected to rise from less than 15 times to about 18 times

judgment of main raw materials: we believe that with the continuous rise of global pulp inventory, the international pulp price has been at the end of the rising cycle since 2001. After a sharp rise of more than 10% this year, the increase of domestic imported pulp price in 2005 will be very limited; The high import volume and import price of waste paper are difficult to change greatly in 2005, but due to the impact of international pulp prices, there is little room for waste paper prices to continue to rise

judgment on major sub industries: the paper consumption is expected to maintain an increase of about 15% in 2005, and the price is expected to decline by about 5%; Although the price of coated paper fell back to the trough, it is not suitable to be blindly pessimistic about its market; From 2004 to 2005, the capacity of coated white board expanded by more than 60%, and the competition will become fierce. However, the supply and demand situation is basically balanced, and there is no obvious excess capacity

investment strategy for the paper industry in 2005: we recommend companies with significant capacity expansion and predictable performance growth, such as Chenming Paper and Bohui paper; We recommend companies with improved product grades and enhanced profitability, such as Hengfeng Paper USA; We remind investors to pay close attention to the industry investment opportunities under the expectation of RMB appreciation. The calculation results show that Huatai will become the biggest winner of RMB appreciation

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